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This is Bob Doughty with the VOA Special English EconomicsReport.
About two-thirds of the economic activity in the United States iscreated by people who spend money -- consumers. And much of thatactivity is created this time of year, as consumers buy gifts forChristmas and other holidays.
Government economists say big department stores make aboutfourteen percent of their sales in the month of December. That maynot seem like a lot. But December sales are almost twice the monthlyaverage for the rest of the year.
The holiday shopping season traditionally starts the day afterThanksgiving. It is called Black Friday. Storekeepers used to recordprofits in black ink and losses in red ink. So being "in the black"on the Friday after Thanksgiving means a good thing, a return toprofit.
But it also means that people face crowded stores, which is theother idea of a "Black Friday," a day they do not like. It used tobe the busiest shopping day of the year. In recent years the busiestday has been the Saturday before Christmas.
People who do not like crowded stores have another choice.Americans are buying more on the Internet. The Census Bureau saysthey bought almost fourteen-thousand-million dollars in goods onlinein the last three months of last year. Still, that was less than twopercent of total retail sales.
The National Retail Federation said it expected holiday sales inthe United States to increase by five-point-seven percent over lastyear. The trade group said it expected sales of abouttwo-hundred-seventeen-thousand-million dollars.
Another group, the Conference Board, measures how consumers feelabout the economy. In November it said its Consumer Confidence Indexincreased by ten points, to eighty. That was good news for sellers.But it is still below the starting level of one-hundred set innineteen-eighty-five.
Holiday shopping is also important to the stock market. Lastweek, the Commerce Department said retail sales were higher thanexpected in November. That report helped the Dow Jones IndustrialAverage to close above ten-thousand for the first time in eighteenmonths. Last Friday, though, the University of Michigan released itsconsumer confidence report. The first report for December showed anunexpected decrease in current conditions.
This VOA Special English Economics Report was written by MarioRitter. This is Bob Doughty.