[Economics Report]:Nobel in Economics


This is Bob Doughty with the VOA Special English EconomicsReport.

Two professors, Robert Engle and Clive Granger, are the winnersthis year of the Nobel prize in economics. Professor Engle isAmerican; Professor Granger is British. The award honors their workto help economists better understand what are called "time series."These show the development of things like stock prices, interestrates and levels of national production.

The two professors worked together for many years at theUniversity of California at San Diego. They established one of thetop programs in economic measurement. Clive Granger became aprofessor at New York University three years ago. Both professorsare now partly retired, but still active in their work.

Clive Granger
Clive Granger

Professor Granger's work in thenineteen-seventies and eighties permitted him to develop methods tostudy economic changes. He was interested in how prices change overtime. He found that economists treat many economic changes as ifthey did not have forces that act upon them. This can lead tomisleading results.

Professor Granger developed methods to test his theories. Thesemethods showed which economic changes are related. For example, themethods showed a link between the foreign exchange rate of anation's money and prices in its economy. Professor Granger workedwith Professor Engle to develop tests to show which economic changesare, and are not, related. Economists use these tests widely.

Robert Engle
Robert Engle

Professor Engle also developedways to estimate the risk of an investment during a period of time.Today these methods help banks, for example, decide how much wealththey need to remain financially healthy.

Robert Engle and Clive Granger will share the prize of aboutone-million-three-hundred-thousand dollars.

The award is officially called the Bank of Sweden Prize inEconomic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. Alfred Nobel did notestablish the prize. The Bank of Sweden established it innineteen-sixty-eight. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences inStockholm presents the award. The names of people nominated forNobel prizes remain secret for fifty years.

To learn about other winners of this year's Nobel prizes, listenTuesday for the fifteen-minute program Science in the News.

This VOA Special English Economics Report was written by MarioRitter. This is Bob Doughty.

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